Astana: Golubev v Kirillov

Golubev v Kirillov

Astana

Kazakhstan

ATP Challenger Tour

These two have never met before (on the ATP pro tour at least) so there is no information to be had there, but Golubev does have a higher ATP rankings (150 v 260). But my model tells a different story as the figure on the right shows; it suggest a much more even matchup, even suggesting Kirillov as the better player with strong performances in two out of his last 3 tournaments.

So what do the book-makers say
Golubev 1.40 (Unibet)
Kirillov 2.90 (5dimes, Sportbet)

The play
We're definitely making a play on Kirillov at these odds, just hope he can live up to his potential and overcome any psycological barriers he might have playing a higher rated opponent. Due to this uncertainty a bit of a smaller play:

0.4u Kirillov 2.90 (Sportbet)