Olympics: Davydenko v Nishikori

Davydenko v Nishikori

2nd Round Olympics

The model thinks there is some value backing Davydenko:

	Prob. %			EU Odds		US Odds
Players	Model	Bookies	Value	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Davydenko, Nikolay	41%	28%	13%	2.42	3.55	+142	+255
Nishikori, Kei	59%	74%	-15%	1.70	1.35	-142	-286

Davydenko played very strongly against Stepanek and has stated that he has a lot of motivation to represent Russia here at the olympics. Let's see if he can pull off the upset.

0.5u Davydenko 3.55 (The Greek)

BOL

Results Update: 30 July

Again a small day yesterday with only 2 bets being graded.
Monaco did well winning pretty easily in the end in straight sets.
Garcia-Lopez was pretty disappointing, neither player lost their service games in the entire match and Garcia-Lopez was only closely edged out in the tie-breakers.

1.5u Monaco 1.65 (Pinnacle)
1u Garcia-Lopez 1.7 (Bwin)

Day Result:

-0.03u

New Total Result

106.00

Check out the results history

Olympics: Lopez v Monaco

Lopez v Monaco

2nd Round Olympics

The model today again likes Monaco quite a lot. 

He is also playing well seen in the up-trend in his model rating, and won his match yesterday quite comfortably in the end.

Whereas yesterday Lopez had a tough 3-setter that he should have been able to win more comfortably.

The Odds:

Lopez  2.15 (bwin)

Monaco  1.80 (pinnacle)

The Play?

With Monaco only given odds of a slight favourite we must back him:

1.5u Monaco @ 1.80 (pinnacle)

Contemplating going bigger, but haven't bit the bullet yet.

Olympics Future Analysis: Part 3

After the completion of day 3 I've update my Olympics futures winners odds predictions (from my model).
To summarise it for you, the model says there is still quite a lot of value in backing Ferrer at the current market odds. Also Federer, Murray and Almagro look interesting. Take a look:

Citi Open: Mahut v Berankis

Mahut v Berankis

Citi Open

DC, USA

ATP World Tour 500

The model again likes Mahut as favourite to win this match.

The tricky thing about this is that Berankis just made the final in L.A. so he could be quite tired from playing all last week, on the other-hand, he could be quite confident after having a solid performance. Both of these factors adds a bit of uncertainty to this match-up.

The odds

Mahut 2.16 (Pinnacle)

Berankis 1.77 (Pinnacle)

The Play?

Due to the uncertainty we're going to back Mahut for smaller size:

0.5u Mahut @ 2.16 (Pinnacle)

Good Luck!

Results Update: 29 July

Another small day yesterday with only 2 bets being graded due to weather interruptions at the Olympics.
We backed Bellucci to beat Tsonga at very high odds (6.67) which almost paid off nicely. Bellucci won the first set in a tie-breaker but went on to lose the match in 3 sets. Although I'm disappointed I'm satisfied at the same time because I think the model really did a good job of identifying an opportunity there.

0.5u Sousa 2.10 (Sportbet)

0.5u Bellucci 6.67 (Pinnacle)

Day Result:

+0.05u

New Total Result

106.03

Check out the results history

Citi Open: Garcia-Lopez v Mayer

Garcia-Lopez v Mayer

Citi Open

DC, USA

ATP World Tour 500

The model really likes Garcia-Lopez in this matchup. Both have a similar service strength but Garcia-Lopez return of serve is what sets him apart.

This is a pretty big tournament with a chance to make some decent cash without most of the usual big names so these guys will probably play pretty hard. Could be a really close match.

The odds:

Garcia-Lopez  1.7 (Bwin)

Mayer  2.37 (Pinnacle)

The play?

The model really likes Garcia-Lopez as these odds so that is what we will do:

1u Garcia-Lopez 1.7 (Bwin)

Tampere: Sousa v Prodon

Sousa v Prodon

Tampere

Finland

ATP Challenger Tour

The model thinks this should be a very close match, but giving the slight edge to Sousa. Therefore if we can get underdog odds for him it could be an opportunity.

The Odds

Sousa 2.10 (Sportbet)

Prodon 1.80 (Unibet)

The Play?

Sousa is priced as a small underdog so we will take the opportunity:

0.5u Sousa 2.10 (Sportbet)

Results Update: 28 July

A positive day but not by much. Let's hope we can find something juicy today.

0.8u Berlocq 1.75 (Pinnacle)

2u Almagro 1.60 (Pinnacle)

Day Result

+0.4u

New Total Result

105.98u (10-7-0)

Check out the results history

Olympics Future Analysis: Part 2

After the first day of matches we've had a few unexpected outcomes and Federer was suprisingly pushed to 3 sets.

Below is the updated table of the Olympics futures analysis after the first day of matches. Enjoy!

Olympics: Goffin v Monaco

Goffin v Monaco

1st Round Olympics

Current Odds:

Goffin 2.39 (Pinnacle)

Monaco 1.65 (Pinnacle)

The Play?

The model really likes Monaco and there is a lot of value backing him at 1.65, so that is what we'll do:

1.5u Monaco 1.65 (Pinnacle)

BOL

Olympics Day 1

I've been through most of the matches being played today and found a couple more bets that I think have some value:

Bogomolov v Berlocq 

Looks like Berlocq is pretty nice to back at 1.75 (Pinnacle). Although Bogomolov is a dangerous player and if he makes all his impressive ground strokes it could be tough for Berlocq.

0.8u Berlocq 1.75 (Pinnacle)

Other Plays

Dimitrov is a heavy favourite against Kubot but still value in backing at 1.40. At this stage I'm not going to do anything, might add it to a parlay if I can find another bet.

Olympics: Tsonga v Bellucci

Tsonga v Bellucci

1st Round Olympics

My model never really likes Tsonga. I think it's his style of play which statistically doesn't show him being as strong as he actually is. He had a good run at Wimbledon, losing in the semis to Murray.

On the other hand Bellucci just won the ATP in Gstaad and therefore appears to be in pretty good form.

The odds:

Tsonga  1.14 (Pinnacle)  

Bellucci  6.67 (Pinnacle)

The play:

I can't say I personally expect Bellucci to have a great chance to win this one, but at these odds the model thinks there is definitely some value in backing Bellucci, therefore:

0.5u Bellucci 6.67 (Pinnacle)

Results Update: 27 July

A dissapointing day. Fortunately we only lost 0.5 units on each bet.


0.5u Mahut 2.05 (Pinnacle)


0.5u Klizan 2.58 (betfair adjusted)

Day Result

-1.0u

New Total Result

105.58u (9-6-0)

Check out the results history

Olympics: Troicki v Almagro

Troicki v Almagro

1st Round Olympics

Current Odds

Troicki    2.50 (Sportbet)

Almagro  1.60 (Pinnacle)

My model really thinks Almagro should dominate this one. His service game is is far superior to Troicki, and his return game is better as well.

There has been some questions about Almagro's health and fitness but this is the first round of the Olympics, he should be very determined and push through small niggling injuries. If you want to be safe you might try to find a book that cancels bets if there aren't two sets finished incase he retires in the first two sets (like The Greek) but I think this is quite unlikely.

The Play

Fairly confident about this one

2u Almagro 1.60 (Pinnacle)

I might scalp half if the lines moves to 1.30, or all of if it moves to 1.15 or lower

Farmer's Classic: Mahut v Berankis

Mahut v Berankis

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

This looks like it's going to be a pretty close matchup, with the model slightly favouring Mahut. 

But Berankis has been on a roll of late, winning his last 5 matches here at the Farmers Classic, and doing pretty well in Atlanta before that. 

Mahut's recent performance isn't as good but he has been facing higher levels of competition (last two loses coming from Roddick and Isner)

Current Odds:

Mahut 2.05 (Pinnacle)

Berankis 1.89 (Sportbet)

The Play:

At these odds it's worth a smallish play on Mahut

0.5u Mahut 2.05 (Pinnacle)

Olympics Futures Analysis: Part 1

I had some time this morning to look at the Olympics draw, and decided to do some analysis of the futures.

I used my model to create a matrix containing the probabilities for all the possible matchups in the tournament (i.e. a 64 x 64 matrix).

From this I then used the tournament futures odds program a made a while ago to simulate the probabilities of all the players making it through the various stages of the tournament.

Please note: these are rather rough calculations and the finals results are very sensitive to small changes in the model inputs. Also for the matches where there is an overwhelming favourite (i.e. Federer v Falla in the first round) my model often says the favourite is even more of a favourite than the market/bookmakers say.)

If you need some more explanation of the meaning of the results presented here or have any input, please comment and I will respond shortly, also please share this with anyone you know who might be interested. I value any input I can get.

So without further ado, here are the results:

Results Update: 26 July

Again is was another decent day; Kohlschreiber didn't end up tanking, Dutra Silva pulled off the upset, Malisse won nicely but unfortunately Paire lost to Russell (who somehow I am underappreciating, betting against him twice in the last week has cost us).


1u Paire 2.18 (Sportbet)

1u Malisse 1.90 (Pinnacle)

0.5u Dutra Silva 2.69 (Betfair)

1.5u Kohlschreiber 1.65 (The Greek)

Day Result

+1.72u

New Total Result

106.58u (9-4-0)

Check out the results history

Kitzbühel: Haase v Klizan

Haase v Klizan

bet-at-home Cup Kitzbühel

Austria

ATP World Tour 250

I've been struggling to find something nice to bet on as I'm a bit more paranoid about players motivations and priorities given the Olympics beginning very shortly. Both these players are in the Olympics so it should be a coin-flip on who is more determined to win/lose here in Kitzbühul (although I would say that Haase has the easier draw to progress further in the Olympic tournament).

Back to the analysis of the this match: the model gives Haase the slight edge in service strength, but Klizans' return game is what should make the difference here as it is historically much stronger.

What are the current odds?

Not a lot of bookies giving odds yet but looks like it will be roughly:

Haase 1.55

Klizan 2.58

The play:

For underdog odds the model likes Klizan

0.5u Klizan 2.58 (betfair adjusted)

I got 0.5 units done done at 2.58 (betfair commission adjusted). Tip: If you try and do some at betfair don't just hit the market if the odds are really wide, try getting your bet filled somewhere in the middle.

Farmer's Classic: Paire v Russell

Paire v Russell

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

Current Odds:

Paire  2.18 (Sportbet)

Russell  1.82 (Unibet)

What's the Play?

The model thinks Paire is the better player and says he should be the favourite, but the odds say otherwise, therefore we must back Paire:

1u Paire 2.18 (Sportbet)

Results Update: 25 July

The play in Kitzbühel was interrupted by rain so a lot of the matches were delayed until the 26th.  I'm a bit worried about the Kohlschreiber v Balazs match, as Kohlschreiber is down 0-3 in the first set. We backed him on The Greek which has rules that two sets must be completed for the bet to stand. So if he does tank, I hope he retires before the end of the second set.

I'm still quite confident in the Malisse play, and the betting public has shown they agree with me as the line has moved from 1.90 to a more sensible 1.70 now.

The one match that was completed that we did bet on was successful as Klizan finished off Cervenak in straight sets.

1u Klizan 2.48 (Sportbet)

Day Result

+1.48u

New Total Result:

104.86 (6-3-0)

Also, I've add a results page (link in the bar towards the top of the site), which graphs the results so far. Check it out.

Farmer's Classic: Malisse v Ebden

Malisse v Ebden

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

Current Odds:

Malisse 1.90 (Pinnacle)

Ebden   2.01 (Pinnacle)

What does the model think?

The model thinks Malisse is the better player and by a significant margin. Malisse has a much better service game, and roughly equal return games. 

Therefore the play is:

1u Malisse 1.90 (Pinnacle)

Results Update: 24 July

I'm reasonably satisfied with the results. We backed some dogs that lost in very close matches (Phau and Kirillov) so it's hard to regret any of the decision made, maybe I can start thinking about betting on the handicaps in these cases (although I prefer not to bet the markets where the vig is higher).

Lorenzi didn't win as easily as I thought he should, but a win is a win none-the-less, and Kamke came out on top in a tough 3 setter v.s. Blake which was rewarding.

We didn't end up betting on Andreev (v Sela). At the time the odds were 2.13 for Andreev and I stated that if it went to 2.20 I would back him, but the odds took a massive dive to around 1.40, and he ended up winning the match. In hindsight I shouldn't have waited for the better price because there was already decent value in the bet... anyway, you live and learn.

0.8u Phau 2.58 (Pinnacle)

1u Kamke 2.37 (Pinnacle)

0.5u Lorenzi 1.82 (Sportbet)

1.2u Lorenzi 1.66 (Pinnacle)

0.5u Levine 2.03 (Sportbet)

0.5u Lammer 2.10 (Sportbet)

0.4u Kirillov 2.90 (Sportbet)

Day Result

+1.42 Units for the day (3-3-0)

New Total Result:

103.38u (5-3-0)

Kitzbühel: Dutra Silva v Gulbis

Dutra Silva v Gulbis

bet-at-home Cup Kitzbühel

Austria

ATP World Tour 250

Current Odds:

Dutra Silva 2.69 (Betfair adjusted odds)

Gulbis  1.56 (The Greek)

What does the Model Think?

The model thinks these two should be rather evenly matched. Gulbis has the better service game and Dutra Silva the better return game. Given this is relatively fast clay, I am being a bit cautious and only betting small on Dutra Silva:

0.5u Dutra Silva 2.69 (Betfair)

Kitzbühel: Kohlschreiber v Balazs

Kohlschreiber v Balazs

bet-at-home Cup Kitzbühel

Austria

ATP World Tour 250

This is a pretty surprising one Kohlschreiber looks to be the massive favourite in this matchup. Usually this kind of disparity would give the favourite odds somewhere close to 1.10 but you can currently back Kohlschreiber at 1.65.

What are the reasons for this? Well Balazs has been playing very well lately, upsetting Fischer in the previous round (and winning his qualifying matches before that). But Kohlschreiber should be on another level to those previous opponents.

Maybe Kohlschreiber's performance is in doubt given the Olympics next week? Despite all this I think we must back Kohlschreiber at these odds:

1.5u Kohlschreiber 1.65 (The Greek)

Kitzbühel: Klizan v Cervenak

Klizan v Cervenak

bet-at-home Cup Kitzbühel

Austria

ATP World Tour 250

The model likes Klizan in this matchup. Both his serving and return game should be better than Cervenak.

Cervenak has been playing well, winning against Ramirez-Hidalgo in 3 sets in the first round, and winning the two qualifying matches before that (although not all that convincingly), so maybe that recent performance hasn't been taken into account enough.

But given these odds we must bet on Klizan:

1u Klizan 2.48 (Sportbet)

Farmer's Classic: Berankis v Phau

Berankis v Phau

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

The model thinks this should be a very close matchup. Both players have been playing well lately as seen in the positive trend in their ratings.

Given that they should be quite evenly matched I will play the following:

0.8u Phau 2.58 (Pinnacle)

BOL

Farmer's Classic: Kamke v Blake

Kamke v Blake

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

The model is saying that Kamke is the better player and should win more than 50% of the time. But we know Blake was once a much higher level player so he has potential to beat most players at these levels.

So what do the book-makers say

Currently the line are:
Kamke 2.37 (Pinnacle)
Blake 1.70 (Sportbet)

The play

Therefore we must back Kamke:

1u Kamke 2.37 (Pinnacle)

BOL

Update: Farmer's Classic: Klahn v Lorenzi

Adding some more to Lorenzi as the line has improved:


0.5u Lorenzi 1.82 (Sportbet)

Farmer's Classic: Klahn v Lorenzi

Klahn v Lorenzi

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

Ok, this seems pretty interesting at first site, Lorenzi looks to be clearly the superior player over Klahn. The model says it and so do their ATP rankings. 

So what about the odds, currently it's possible to back Lorenzi at odds of 1.66 which puts him as a decent favourite but not a massive one like my model would suggest. 

I am a little bit nervous about this play as it feels like I might be missing something, and I only have 15 matches of Klahn in the database but we have to do what we have to do:

1.2u Lorenzi  1.66 (Pinnacle)

Farmer's Classic: Sela v Andreev

Sela v Andreev

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

Another tricky one. Edging towards Andreev. We will back him if we can get odds of 2.20 or better. Let's wait and see.

Farmer's Classic: Levine v Russell

Levine v Russell

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

These two are 1:1 in previous match-ups with very similar ATP rankings.

The model is saying that Levine should be the slight favourite. Therefore we'll make the following play:

0.5u Levine 2.03 (Sportbet)

If the odds were better, say 2.20 we would bet a full unit on Levine.

Kitzbühel: Cervenak v Ramirez Hidalgo

Cervenak v Ramirez Hidalgo

bet-at-home Cup Kitzbühel

Austria

ATP World Tour 250

This is a tricky one for me to pick. Presently the model thinks that these two players are equal as Cervenak has been improving lately and Ramirez Hidalgo declining.

Ramirez Hidalgo has the better ATP ranking (90th vs 200th) but on there single previous encounter in 2009 Cervenak won.

What do the book-makers say

Cervenak 1.70 (Unibet)

Ramirez Hidalgo 2.36 (Pinnacle)

The play?

This is a difficult choice but I think I'll have to sit this one out. I think the recent form is enough to avoid this one even though there looks like some value in backing Ramirez Hidalgo at these odds, therefore:

No play

Results Update: 23 July

Things have started off well for the blog with the first two completed picks both ending up as winners (also predicted the Veic v Kavcic match correctly but unfortunately opted not to bet on that one):

0.5u Cipolla 2.43 (Sportbet) Wins 0.72u

1u Capdeville 2.25 (The Greek) Wins 1.25u

Day Result

+1.96 Units for the day

New Total Result:

101.96u (2-0-0)

Tampere: Lammer v Michon

Lammer v Michon

Tampere

Finland

ATP Challenger Tour

The model predicts that Lammer should win this matchup more times than he loses. These two haven't played on the ATP against each other, Lammer has the slightly higher ranking. 

Both guys have similar level of serve (both not that good) but Lammer's return game is what should be the deciding factor.

So what do the book-makers say:

Lammer 2.10 (Sportbet)

Michon  1.67 (Sportbet)

The Play

Higher uncertainty in these smaller challenger tournaments therefore a smallish play:

0.5u Lammer 2.10 (Sportbet)

Astana: Golubev v Kirillov

Golubev v Kirillov

Astana

Kazakhstan

ATP Challenger Tour

These two have never met before (on the ATP pro tour at least) so there is no information to be had there, but Golubev does have a higher ATP rankings (150 v 260). But my model tells a different story as the figure on the right shows; it suggest a much more even matchup, even suggesting Kirillov as the better player with strong performances in two out of his last 3 tournaments.

So what do the book-makers say
Golubev 1.40 (Unibet)
Kirillov 2.90 (5dimes, Sportbet)

The play
We're definitely making a play on Kirillov at these odds, just hope he can live up to his potential and overcome any psycological barriers he might have playing a higher rated opponent. Due to this uncertainty a bit of a smaller play:

0.4u Kirillov 2.90 (Sportbet)

Update - Farmer's Classic: Cipolla v Sock

I've had some time to update the database with last weeks matches so here are the results for the Cipolla v Sock match. As you can see his rating in my model did improve with his solid performance last week as expected.

Although the line has now moved even more, and I see value in back Cipolla in small size at these odds, therefore the play is:

0.5u Cipolla 2.43 (Sportbet)

Farmer's Classic: Cipolla v Sock

Cipolla v Sock

Farmer's Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

My database needs to be updated with the most recent matches from the tournaments last week so the graph to the right is missing Jack Sock's recent matches where he performed quite well in Atlanta before losing to Isner in the quarter finals. Looking at the model output alone it would suggest that Cipolla should be the favourite, and Cipolla's ATP ranking it much better than Sock's, but I would be cautious with this as Sock is a young up-and-coming player with a lot of motivation playing on home soil.

So what do the book makers say

Currently the line are:
Cipolla 2.30 (Pinnacle)
Sock 1.74 (The Greek)

The play

The book-makers and betting public are voting in favour of Sock. Without the data from last weeks matches I can't confidently suggest a play on Cipolla, therefore:

No play

BOL

Kitzbühel: Veic v Kavcic

Veic v Kavcic

bet-at-home Cup Kitzbühel

Austria

ATP World Tour 250

The graph to the right basically says it all. These two players are rather evenly matched as the model gives them very similar scores going back over their last 10 matches.

Veic is up 4:2 in their previous head to head matchups but Kavcic has a higher ATP tour rating (debatable how meaningful that is). This seems to verify the previous statement depending on how much weight you give to previous matchups or current ratings.

So what do the book makers say

Currently the line are:
Veic  2.10 (The Greek)
Kavcic 1.83 (Pinnacle)

The play

So the odds are pretty much inline with our expectations, close to even money with Kavcic the slight favourite (probably due to his higher ATP rating, or is his higher ATP rating due to him being the better player?).

If I had to choose a side I would take Veic as their appears to be a small amount of value there but to be honest this is too marginal, therefore:

no play

BOL

Farmer's Classic: Kunitsyn v Capdeville

Kunitsyn v Capdeville

Farmers Classic

CA, U.S.A.

ATP World Tour 250

From my statistical analysis of these players I believe that Capdeville should be the favourite in this matchup. Both Capdeville's service and return should be better and therefore his overall rating, as graphed below is better than Kunitsyn.

(c) Cheven Tennis

My database needs to be updated with the most recent matches from the tournaments last week where Kunitsyn impressively beat Bryan Baker in 3 sets, but I still think Capdeville should be the favourite.

So what do the book makers say

Currently the line are:
Kunitsyn  1.79 (Pinnacle)
Capdeville 2.25 (The Greek)

The play

Therefore the play will be to back Capdeville as the bookmakers are saying he is an underdog, whereas the model suggests he should be favourite.

1u Capdeville 2.25 (The Greek)

BOL

Cheven's Tennis Introduction

Introduction

For a few months I've been working on a project to use statistics from previous tennis matches to predict the the likely outcome of future matches. I currently only look at ATP matches (men's tennis) from the challenger level up.

This blog is where I will share my findings and as a place for me to keep track of my predictions so I can look back and see what was successful or unsuccessful.

Occassionally I will also share some of my research into the statistics of the sport.