Aptos: Copil v Wang

Copil v Wang

Aptos

CA, U.S.A.

ATP Challenger Tour

The model thinks Copil should be the favourite here but bookmakers say otherwise. His serving performance is what should make the difference here as he has good serving stats as well as these hard courts in Aptos being faster than average. Small play due to uncertainty in these smaller tournies.

	Prob. %		Value	EU Odds		US Odds
Players	Model	Bookies	Edge	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Copil, Marius	71%	43%	28%	1.41	2.35	-242	+135

0.5u Copil @ 2.35 (bwin)

Rogers Cup: Cipolla v Zopp

Cipolla v Zopp

Rogers Cup

Toronto, Ontario

ATP World Tour Masters 1000

In the table below you can see the model likes Zopp. Zopp has a significantly better service game than Cipolla which should play a factor as the hard courts in Toronto are supposedly quite fast.

Cipolla is a relatively old player who has been flat-lining around an ATP ranking of 100 for years, whereas Zopp is still young and improving as seen by his breakthrough into the top 100 in recent times.

Zopp is also leading 1-0 in previous head-to-head match-ups.

	Prob. %			EU Odds		US Odds
Players	Model	Bookies	Value	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Zopp, Jurgen	69%	31%	38%	1.46	3.20	-219	+220

1u Zopp @ 1.78 (pinnacle)

Citi Open: Fish v Haas

Fish v Haas

Citi Open

DC, USA

ATP World Tour 500

Model likes Haas. Thinks he should be a favourite, market currently pricing him as a slight underdog.

Prob. %

EU Odds

US Odds

Players	Model	Bookies	Value	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Haas, Tommy	64%	48%	16%	1.55	2.10	-180	+110

1.5u Haas @ 2.10 (Betfair commission adjusted)

Good luck!

Olympics: Isner v Tipsarevic

Some value in Tipsarevic today. Also, he seems to be pretty motivated and Isner's not had the easiest time getting here so far.

1u Tipsarevic @1.78 (Pinnacle)

Prob. %

Value

EU Odds

US Odds

Players	Model	Bookies	Edge	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Tipsarevic, Janko	65%	56%	9%	1.53	1.78	-188	-128

Results Update: 31 July

A very dissappointing day yesterday, with all bets losing.
Davydenko, started well and won the first set, but unfortunately faded and lost in a 3 set match.
And it just wasn't Monaco's day (or mine), he started well being up a break early in the match but later in the first set lost his service game twice in a row! Just not good enough.

0.5u Davydenko 3.55 (The Greek)

1.5u Monaco @ 1.80 (pinnacle)

0.5u Mahut @ 2.16 (Pinnacle)

Day Result:

-2.5u

New Total Result:

103.5u

Results history

Olympics: Davydenko v Nishikori

Davydenko v Nishikori

2nd Round Olympics

The model thinks there is some value backing Davydenko:

	Prob. %			EU Odds		US Odds
Players	Model	Bookies	Value	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Davydenko, Nikolay	41%	28%	13%	2.42	3.55	+142	+255
Nishikori, Kei	59%	74%	-15%	1.70	1.35	-142	-286

Davydenko played very strongly against Stepanek and has stated that he has a lot of motivation to represent Russia here at the olympics. Let's see if he can pull off the upset.

0.5u Davydenko 3.55 (The Greek)

BOL

Results Update: 30 July

Again a small day yesterday with only 2 bets being graded.
Monaco did well winning pretty easily in the end in straight sets.
Garcia-Lopez was pretty disappointing, neither player lost their service games in the entire match and Garcia-Lopez was only closely edged out in the tie-breakers.

1.5u Monaco 1.65 (Pinnacle)
1u Garcia-Lopez 1.7 (Bwin)

Day Result:

-0.03u

New Total Result

106.00

Check out the results history

Olympics: Lopez v Monaco

Lopez v Monaco

2nd Round Olympics

The model today again likes Monaco quite a lot. 

He is also playing well seen in the up-trend in his model rating, and won his match yesterday quite comfortably in the end.

Whereas yesterday Lopez had a tough 3-setter that he should have been able to win more comfortably.

The Odds:

Lopez  2.15 (bwin)

Monaco  1.80 (pinnacle)

The Play?

With Monaco only given odds of a slight favourite we must back him:

1.5u Monaco @ 1.80 (pinnacle)

Contemplating going bigger, but haven't bit the bullet yet.

Olympics Future Analysis: Part 3

After the completion of day 3 I've update my Olympics futures winners odds predictions (from my model).
To summarise it for you, the model says there is still quite a lot of value in backing Ferrer at the current market odds. Also Federer, Murray and Almagro look interesting. Take a look:

Citi Open: Mahut v Berankis

Mahut v Berankis

Citi Open

DC, USA

ATP World Tour 500

The model again likes Mahut as favourite to win this match.

The tricky thing about this is that Berankis just made the final in L.A. so he could be quite tired from playing all last week, on the other-hand, he could be quite confident after having a solid performance. Both of these factors adds a bit of uncertainty to this match-up.

The odds

Mahut 2.16 (Pinnacle)

Berankis 1.77 (Pinnacle)

The Play?

Due to the uncertainty we're going to back Mahut for smaller size:

0.5u Mahut @ 2.16 (Pinnacle)

Good Luck!

Results Update: 29 July

Another small day yesterday with only 2 bets being graded due to weather interruptions at the Olympics.
We backed Bellucci to beat Tsonga at very high odds (6.67) which almost paid off nicely. Bellucci won the first set in a tie-breaker but went on to lose the match in 3 sets. Although I'm disappointed I'm satisfied at the same time because I think the model really did a good job of identifying an opportunity there.

0.5u Sousa 2.10 (Sportbet)

0.5u Bellucci 6.67 (Pinnacle)

Day Result:

+0.05u

New Total Result

106.03

Check out the results history

Citi Open: Garcia-Lopez v Mayer

Garcia-Lopez v Mayer

Citi Open

DC, USA

ATP World Tour 500

The model really likes Garcia-Lopez in this matchup. Both have a similar service strength but Garcia-Lopez return of serve is what sets him apart.

This is a pretty big tournament with a chance to make some decent cash without most of the usual big names so these guys will probably play pretty hard. Could be a really close match.

The odds:

Garcia-Lopez  1.7 (Bwin)

Mayer  2.37 (Pinnacle)

The play?

The model really likes Garcia-Lopez as these odds so that is what we will do:

1u Garcia-Lopez 1.7 (Bwin)

Tampere: Sousa v Prodon

Sousa v Prodon

Tampere

Finland

ATP Challenger Tour

The model thinks this should be a very close match, but giving the slight edge to Sousa. Therefore if we can get underdog odds for him it could be an opportunity.

The Odds

Sousa 2.10 (Sportbet)

Prodon 1.80 (Unibet)

The Play?

Sousa is priced as a small underdog so we will take the opportunity:

0.5u Sousa 2.10 (Sportbet)

Results Update: 28 July

A positive day but not by much. Let's hope we can find something juicy today.

0.8u Berlocq 1.75 (Pinnacle)

2u Almagro 1.60 (Pinnacle)

Day Result

+0.4u

New Total Result

105.98u (10-7-0)

Check out the results history

Olympics Future Analysis: Part 2

After the first day of matches we've had a few unexpected outcomes and Federer was suprisingly pushed to 3 sets.

Below is the updated table of the Olympics futures analysis after the first day of matches. Enjoy!

Olympics: Goffin v Monaco

Goffin v Monaco

1st Round Olympics

Current Odds:

Goffin 2.39 (Pinnacle)

Monaco 1.65 (Pinnacle)

The Play?

The model really likes Monaco and there is a lot of value backing him at 1.65, so that is what we'll do:

1.5u Monaco 1.65 (Pinnacle)

BOL

Olympics Day 1

I've been through most of the matches being played today and found a couple more bets that I think have some value:

Bogomolov v Berlocq 

Looks like Berlocq is pretty nice to back at 1.75 (Pinnacle). Although Bogomolov is a dangerous player and if he makes all his impressive ground strokes it could be tough for Berlocq.

0.8u Berlocq 1.75 (Pinnacle)

Other Plays

Dimitrov is a heavy favourite against Kubot but still value in backing at 1.40. At this stage I'm not going to do anything, might add it to a parlay if I can find another bet.

Olympics: Tsonga v Bellucci

Tsonga v Bellucci

1st Round Olympics

My model never really likes Tsonga. I think it's his style of play which statistically doesn't show him being as strong as he actually is. He had a good run at Wimbledon, losing in the semis to Murray.

On the other hand Bellucci just won the ATP in Gstaad and therefore appears to be in pretty good form.

The odds:

Tsonga  1.14 (Pinnacle)  

Bellucci  6.67 (Pinnacle)

The play:

I can't say I personally expect Bellucci to have a great chance to win this one, but at these odds the model thinks there is definitely some value in backing Bellucci, therefore:

0.5u Bellucci 6.67 (Pinnacle)

Results Update: 27 July

A dissapointing day. Fortunately we only lost 0.5 units on each bet.


0.5u Mahut 2.05 (Pinnacle)


0.5u Klizan 2.58 (betfair adjusted)

Day Result

-1.0u

New Total Result

105.58u (9-6-0)

Check out the results history

Olympics: Troicki v Almagro

Troicki v Almagro

1st Round Olympics

Current Odds

Troicki    2.50 (Sportbet)

Almagro  1.60 (Pinnacle)

My model really thinks Almagro should dominate this one. His service game is is far superior to Troicki, and his return game is better as well.

There has been some questions about Almagro's health and fitness but this is the first round of the Olympics, he should be very determined and push through small niggling injuries. If you want to be safe you might try to find a book that cancels bets if there aren't two sets finished incase he retires in the first two sets (like The Greek) but I think this is quite unlikely.

The Play

Fairly confident about this one

2u Almagro 1.60 (Pinnacle)

I might scalp half if the lines moves to 1.30, or all of if it moves to 1.15 or lower