Aptos: Copil v Wang

Copil v Wang

Aptos

CA, U.S.A.

ATP Challenger Tour

The model thinks Copil should be the favourite here but bookmakers say otherwise. His serving performance is what should make the difference here as he has good serving stats as well as these hard courts in Aptos being faster than average. Small play due to uncertainty in these smaller tournies.

	Prob. %		Value	EU Odds		US Odds
Players	Model	Bookies	Edge	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Copil, Marius	71%	43%	28%	1.41	2.35	-242	+135

0.5u Copil @ 2.35 (bwin)

Rogers Cup: Cipolla v Zopp

Cipolla v Zopp

Rogers Cup

Toronto, Ontario

ATP World Tour Masters 1000

In the table below you can see the model likes Zopp. Zopp has a significantly better service game than Cipolla which should play a factor as the hard courts in Toronto are supposedly quite fast.

Cipolla is a relatively old player who has been flat-lining around an ATP ranking of 100 for years, whereas Zopp is still young and improving as seen by his breakthrough into the top 100 in recent times.

Zopp is also leading 1-0 in previous head-to-head match-ups.

	Prob. %			EU Odds		US Odds
Players	Model	Bookies	Value	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Zopp, Jurgen	69%	31%	38%	1.46	3.20	-219	+220

1u Zopp @ 1.78 (pinnacle)

Citi Open: Fish v Haas

Fish v Haas

Citi Open

DC, USA

ATP World Tour 500

Model likes Haas. Thinks he should be a favourite, market currently pricing him as a slight underdog.

Prob. %

EU Odds

US Odds

Players	Model	Bookies	Value	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Haas, Tommy	64%	48%	16%	1.55	2.10	-180	+110

1.5u Haas @ 2.10 (Betfair commission adjusted)

Good luck!

Olympics: Isner v Tipsarevic

Some value in Tipsarevic today. Also, he seems to be pretty motivated and Isner's not had the easiest time getting here so far.

1u Tipsarevic @1.78 (Pinnacle)

Prob. %

Value

EU Odds

US Odds

Players	Model	Bookies	Edge	Model	Bookies	Model	Bookies
Tipsarevic, Janko	65%	56%	9%	1.53	1.78	-188	-128

Results Update: 31 July

A very dissappointing day yesterday, with all bets losing.
Davydenko, started well and won the first set, but unfortunately faded and lost in a 3 set match.
And it just wasn't Monaco's day (or mine), he started well being up a break early in the match but later in the first set lost his service game twice in a row! Just not good enough.

0.5u Davydenko 3.55 (The Greek)

1.5u Monaco @ 1.80 (pinnacle)

0.5u Mahut @ 2.16 (Pinnacle)

Day Result:

-2.5u

New Total Result:

103.5u

Results history